c-vine copula models for the analysis of glacier discharge at King George Island, Antarctica

M. Gómez Díaz, C. Ausín Olivera, M. C. Domínguez Álvarez

Glaciers are considered sensors of the Global Warming. The study of their mass balance is essential to understand their future behaviour. One of the components of this mass balance is the loss of water produced by melting, this is known as the glacier discharge. The GLACKMA association (www.glackma.es) has collected data since 2001 from its measurement station in the Collins ice cap in the Antarctic. Our aim is to find a model that permit us to predict the future discharge when meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation or precipitation are known. We propose the use of copulas to model the dependence among the variables, in particular, we use time-varying c-vine copulas to build the model. This model would allow us to estimate the future discharge of glaciers by measuring meteorological variables.

Palabras clave: Glaciar discharge, copulas, c-vine

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